1) Lance Armstrong Understands the Evidence is Too Much to Overcome: Self explanatory. The case against him is so strong, and will only get stronger over time as more cyclists/doctors/friends need to rid themselves of having the weight on their chest. Lance doped, and we don't need him to tell us.
2) Lance Armstrong (LA) Liked being a Public Hero: Hard to be a public hero, let along be out in public, given his denial in the context of the mounting evidence mentioned in #1.
3) For Lance, It's Not Enough to Apologize and Walk Away: A "confession" (in quotes since we all already know what he is speculating telling us which makes the whole thing a bit odd to me) and true, heart-felt, very well written apology may enable LA to show his face in public, but I don't think he would have hero status; certainly not in the minds of the people, and probably not even in his own mind, which matters a lot to a guy who loved nothing more than being the man.
4) Confession with Conditions Ripe for Redemption: All the reports thus far say that LA is considering speaking with authorities if there is potential for his lifetime band from competition to be reduced...this is the golden nugget in my opinion, and gives Lance a chance to continue his fight even after admitting he doped. The story will change slightly from "I never cheated" toward "Everyone was doing it and I am really the best against a level playing field," but the point is it allows LA a big huge "but" each time he says "I cheated." More details on what I mean by this in the next points...
5) Hey, I was Pretty Good at this Triathlon Thing: Say what you want, but when LA entered the sport of triathlon, he showed potential promise at racing long-course events; enough to draw Macca and Crowie back to Kona (in their own words). I can't stay definitively but I highly doubt Lance was doping during his recent return to triathlon; it would have been downright stupid given the level of scrutiny and testing. If he was not in fact doping during the return, then one could say Lance was a FOP professional triathlete clean.
6) Confession that Lets LA Race Triathlon Gives LA a Chance At Redemption, At Least in His Own Mind: I would bet that LA's thought process may go something like this: "Well, I'm certainly damned right now, but c'mon, everyone in the peleton was doing it. I can tell the public that everyone was doing it and I was the best against that level playing field, and then train my ass off and try and win/place highly at Kona to be able to show the public that I am the best against a clean -- God, I [Brad, the author] hope so anyways -- playing field too." This at least allows LA to be a hero in his own mind, and will help him sleep at night because he can still tell himself he is the best before his head its the pillow.
A lot of folks have said that LA wants the conditions because he loves racing and seeing himself ranked against others, but I think it is actually because he think he has a legitimate chance of winning in triathlon and using that as his "but" after he has to say he cheated.
Potential Problems: Aside from everything logistically and legally (e.g., civil suits against him, etc.) there are a few other problems with the above theory.
- Personally, I think it is a long-shot that LA can really compete with the top dogs at Kona. Triathlon is not a 112 mile time-trial, and running a marathon after biking for 112 miles is different than running a hard tempo run after 56 miles (the latter, something LA showed us all that he was pretty good at).
- Even if Lance were to do something so crazy as win at Kona, what about the compounding effects of his doping? Again, I'm not an expert, but I bet some experts will say that what he was able to do while doped up in training years ago triggered physiological adaptations that still help him today in a clean state.
- Finally, while this may give him a chance to be the best in his own mind, I think those that have closely followed the sport and subsequently this saga will have a hard time taking any confession seriously when LA did things like this on Twitter after the evidence was made public
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